5 lessons for punters on horse racing’s biggest payday

March 17, 2021 | By More

Australian Guineas Day at Flemington and Chipping Norton Stakes Day at Randwick on 27th Feb 2021, were rife with upsets, boilers and blowouts. While most of us punters were left beaten and forlorn, some smart punters were busy counting their mountains of cash. What did they know that others didn’t? What can we learn from them to find the winning way? We’ve identified 5 lessons for punters that will help us enjoy the spoils the next time we attempt to smash the bookies.

The day was a veritable nightmare for punters with hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, falling into the bookmaker’s swollen bags. Well-backed favourites succumbed to less-fancied longshots. In the last race, Flemington racecaller shouted about favourite Chaillot on reaching the lead, “the punters need it and she wins”. However, on days like this, it’s possible to win huge returns if you know the right betting strategies.

Lessons for punters borne from race review

Punters generally are forward thinkers, planning and scheming their next punting foray. However, smart punters undertake a comprehensive review of past horse racing programs. They learn key lessons that they use in future analyses. The racing at Flemington and Randwick on the 27th February provided an extraordinary learning experience, that no serious punter should take lightly. The racing was rife with upsets and surprises. However, prudent analysis of the day’s events reveal extraordinary that must be added to the punter’s arsenal. The Mayor for example, spends hours reviewing each day’s racing, looking for unique insights in order to provide racing tips and best bets for villagebet punters.

Let’s review the day’s events, particularly through the lens of learning and growing as a professional punter.

Lesson 1: Take advantage of betting promotions

For the first of the lessons for punters, we had Race 1 at Flemington a 1000m Listed race for 2YO’s. Capitalist filly Tycoon Humma was sent out a warm favourite at $2.40 because of her strong debut win at Bendigo. She is the half-sister to Humma Humma, a talented mare from the same stable and racing later in the day. Humma Humma had won 3 stakes races and over half a million in earnings. Tycoon Humma settled last in the run but commenced a storming run at the clocktower to get up in the last stride.

Punters were happy with the $2.40 on offer for Tycoon Humma however astute villagebet punters were laughing all the way to the bank. They enjoyed the $4.00 odds recommended on race morning. Villagebet email subscribers were informed about the Price Push to a delicious $4.00 offered by our preferred betting partner. Punters jumped on it with confidence and an attractive odds profile! Lesson: check out the daily Price Push for an enormous uplift in odds.

Lesson 2: Big Bets are wise investments

Race 4 at Flemington produced one of the most important lessons for punters. Professional punters look for certainties in racing and invest huge amounts of cash. For this reason, The Mayor of Thoroughbred Village has been providing the day’s Big Bets, which are often little value of the small punter but because of them being almost a sure thing, they attract the interest of big punters who invest in multiples of $1,000. Big Bets have enjoyed a terrific strike rate with Exhilarates $8.00, Skyman $3.70, Ancestry 3.30, Bivouac $3.20, Regardsmaree $2.00, Written Miss $2.00, Ancestry $1.30 and Enthaar $1.26 winning for the big guys.

The Big Bet recommended at Flemington was the Godolphin horse Subedar. The Sydney galloper trained by James Cummings had been crying out for a dry track and hence came to Melbourne where he’d previously finished 4th in the G1-Caulfield Guineas. He’s a talented gelding on his day and put paid to them with a powerful sustained finish under the urging of Jamie Kah. Subedar started at $4.40, a generous quote for the Mayor’s sure thing. Lesson, watch out for the Mayor’s Big Bet on the morning of the race and bet with confidence.

Lesson 3: Look for longshots for big returns

The first of the huge payouts occurred at Randwick in the Liverpool City Cup. The day so far had generated some nicely priced winners (Leo $7.00 and O’president $8.50) however the 4th event was won by an outsider, Think It Over, starting at $51. Here is the next in our lessons for punters. Think It Over was identified by villagebet on the morning of the race as a best longshot bet for punters at Randwick. As a matter of fact, Villagebet longshots have been successful over the years with winners consistently winning at odds of $30-$40. At $51 starting price, Think It Over broke the record as villagebet’s longest priced winner.

The So You Think gelding had 20 starts for 4 wins and over $640,000 in earnings, however he was resuming from a successful Spring campaign having won the G3 Craven Plate over 2000m. This time it was 1300m however he’d previously shown that he comes to hand quickly. Glen Boss is known for booting home winners at long odds so it was worthy of consideration. Jumping from the inside gate, Think It Over was positioned on the rails behind the leaders throughout and surged to the lead holding off the fast-finishing Criaderas. Think It Over paid $51 after $71 being offered the morning of the race. 

Lesson 4: Class prevails with blinkers

Punters were left dumbfounded after $301 longshot Lunar Fox knocked over the favourites in the Australian Guineas. The $3.50 favourite Tagaloa was swamped at the 50m-metre mark by Lunar Fox who then held off the fast-finishing Cherry Tortoni ($10) to take a dramatic Australian Guineas. Another longshot, Damien Oliver’s mount Embolism ($81), finished a gallant fourth after looking dangerous in the straight.

How would punters have considered Lunar Fox in the Australian Guineas? Lunar Fox was having his second run from a 16-week spell. His first run was a 13.2 Length distant 12th in a field of 14 in the G3 CS Hayes Stakes over 1400m at Flemington. Always in the back half of the field, his effort was somewhat inexplicable.

Gear change the key lesson for punters

“He’s always had a lot of ability this horse”, claimed Holly McKechnie, partner of trainer Paul Preusker in Horsham. Lunar Fox had won the G2 Sires Produce at Flemington as a 2YO and been competitive in several other starts against quality opposition, including a respectable 5th in the G1 Caulfield Guineas in the spring.

The secret was the blinkers. “Obviously last start he ran below par and we couldn’t really find any issue. We’ve done the old trick with the blinkers and it seems to have done the job.”

“Last time was just out of character. He’s always trying this horse.”

Another of the key lessons for punters. Always consider a class horse wearing blinkers for the first time.

“Having the blinkers on today and just a massive improvement. They drilled it into me before the race to stay off the fence. From the gate we were able to get the perfect run three-wide and work into it,” said Jockey Michael Dee.

“You could tell when we jumped from the barriers that he was ready to go with those blinkers on.” 

The First 4 on the Guineas for Lunar Fox ($3.10), Cherry Tortoni ($10), Tagaloa ($3.50) and Embolism ($81) paid $974,376. The trifecta paid a handsome $5,230 for the 6/4/2 combination.

Lesson 5: Strategies result in huge quaddie payouts

We’ve saved the best for last in our 5 lessons for punters. Quaddie punters use a variety of strategies to correctly choose the 4 winners of the selected races. We provided a comprehensive analysis of the strategies use by the most successful quadrella punters. However, the quaddie at Flemington on Australian Guineas day highlighted a new strategy. It had previously not been considered as a stand-alone play. This quaddie strategy involves two fancied runners (close to favourites) and two blowout legs. When the field size is fairly small but open, these are perfect for the blowout leg. Take the entire field in those legs and hope the races are won by longshots. All you need to do is select the other two winners of the 4 quaddie legs.

The first leg, the Blamey Stakes, was won by Star Of The Seas, sent off as a $3.90 chance. The Chris Waller-trained galloper was well supported because he had been freshened for 4 weeks after a Sydney campaign. Buffalo River, the $2.70 favourite, set a frantic pace for most of the race. This left the two quality stayers, Star Of The Seas and Fifty Stars ($12) to finish over the top.

The next leg, The Australian Guineas, had 15 runners with many legitimate chances. The 1100m Inglis Dash was the 3rd leg, with 13 runners, and many unknowns. The I Am Invincible filly Capriccio finished down the outside rail to win at $41, the race caller claiming the “bookmakers are heading to the Bahamas”. The final leg, the G3 Frances Tressady Stakes, was won by talented mare Chaillot, who was also coming off a 4-week freshen up. Chaillot was well-backed at $3.80.

Huge payouts for smart punters

If you were smart enough to select Star Of The Seas ($3.90) in the first leg and Chaillot ($3.80) in the last, while taking the field in the middle two legs, you would have netted a princely sum of $530,082 for a $1 unit. The bet would have cost $195 to cover it all (1x15x13x1). Even if you took a 10% flexi-bet on this quaddie for less than $20, the payout was $53,082. As a hypothetical, if you took 2 horses in the first and last legs in a 2% flexi-bet (2x15x13x2) costing $15.60, your payout would have been over $10K. If you bet the price of a coffee ($4.50) on this combination, you would have come away with a dividend of over $3K. Not a bad reason to give up coffee!

Summing up 5 lessons for punters

These 5 lessons for punters will help you land some huge payouts. It’s important to remain focussed and not allow emotion to come into it. Treat each horse on its merits and don’t discard chances for non-sensical reasons. These will no doubt come back to haunt you. As always, pay attention to the latest bookmaker promotions and take advantage of them. They are there for your benefit. Finally, always allow lady luck to smile upon you. Good punting!

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Category: Punting Advice