Does a sure thing exist in horse racing?

February 22, 2019 | By More

A sure thing is something 100% guaranteed. No questions asked, no strings attached, no guilt. A sure thing is handed to you on a plate, ready for the taking. Is there such a thing in horse racing?

A sure thing in horse racing is a bet that has next to no possibility of losing. You may as well join the payout queue as the race unfolds. There is no possibility of this bet not coming in. Has there ever been a sure thing in horse racing?

Sure things in horse racing have been beaten

Cast your minds back to The Rawson Stakes of 1939 at Rosehill. Australia’s champion galloper Ajax stepped out at the prohibitive odds of 1/40 ($1.02) against two competitors. In that race, he failed inexplicably to record his 19th consecutive victory.

Seems to happen quite a lot in horse racing these days too. How often do you see an odds-on pop sensationally beaten? Unless the horse is Winx, the chance is always there that short priced favourites are toppled.

Recently, a soccer coach was heard saying that no team is fool proof. Even champion teams are made up of players with only 2 arms and 2 legs, so anything is possible. Horses have 4 legs of course but the same theory applies. When the athletes step onto the track, nothing is unbeatable.

An elite racehorse may be a super talent, however unless you’re betting houses, the odds offered for him winning are less than attractive.

You could use some of our strategies for betting on favourites which should increase your chances of success.

Even if you calibrate your odds with actual results there are always extreme values or outliers that increase the standard of error.

A sure thing. What can go wrong?

Sure things can be beaten. In one particular horse’s debut, he dropped out and subsequently gobbled them up with ease and arrogance.

Next time, at a new track, it might be a different story. Each track has its own idiosyncrasies that may produce differences in form. Horses for courses?

Next time, the other jockeys are now more aware of his ability and something with superior speed may attempt to steal it on the turn. For example, you can do this at Caulfield.

A horse’s pedigree shows that it hails from a family more suited to a mile and further. At his subsequent start, he may be looking for a little further, and leave his run too late.

When a sure thing loses, the rewards are plenty

Clutching at straws I know, but the rewards can be bountiful as the next best priced horse could be $5.50 or $7.50, much better value if you’re brave enough.

The next line of betting reads more attractively, odds of $17’s and $14’s, typically. Not saying the favoured horse will be beaten, but the odds on the others may be worth a small punt.

There’s always each-way betting!

Try following our racing tips and best bets to find that special value that separates us from other tipsters.

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