Golden Slipper history points to three chances

March 22, 2019 | By More

It’s Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill with 5 Group One races on the program to delight racing fans.

The $3.5M Golden Slipper Stakes is the feature, due to run at 4:30pm.

As usual, the Golden Slipper is a wide open affair, with the colt Cosmic Force currently favourite at $4.60.

Betting odds are likely to change frequently as the big money pours in for different runners.

Historical precedents

Study of the history of the race, in particular the lead up races, suggests there are only 3 main chances. Here’s why.

The three races to study are the Blue Diamond, Todman and Reisling Stakes.

With only three horses doing the Blue Diamond-Golden Slipper double in 33 years, we can eliminate Lyre as a winning hope.

Horses from the Blue Diamond who finish in the placings here have started at $15.00 or less.

We can therefore eliminate Lankan Star and Free Of Debt from the hopes of winning. Add those two for the top four and trifecta.

From the two Sydney lead ups, we isolate the four horses from the quinella, leaving us with Tenley, Yes Yes Yes, Exhilarates and Bellevue Hill.

Bellevue Hill is unlikely to get a run, so we can concentrate on the other three runners.

Tenley ran the quicker time, defeated Exhilarates comprehensively, and receives the two kilogram allowance for fillies.

She is the top rater for the race, with Yes Yes Yes and Exhilarates next. 

If you are taking trifectas and first fours, then as well as adding Lankan Star and Free Of Debt, you should add Time To Reign (Silver Slipper winner), Dubios (Breeders Plate winner) and Pin Sec (Black Opal winner).

Cosmic Force looks the best wet track runner.

Microphone has the best performances coming in, but the wet track is a concern.

Tenley is the one, currently around $6.00 in betting markets.

Rosehill Guineas

The Rosehill Guineas is always a good race and this year The Autumn Sun is a raging favourite.

However if you wish to bet around him then you should concentrate on the VRC and NZ Derby runners.

The long priced winner of the NZ Derby scored a good win, but was that win lucky?

The fourth placegetter Arrogant looks in good form and Surely Sacred needs to improve off that run.

For me, the bet here is the only VRC Derby 3rd placegetter, Chapada. @ $5.00 the place, he represents the best value.

Other Group 1’s at Rosehill

The George Ryder sees Her Majesty, Winz, back in action and she is a good thing, even better on the heavy track!

Australia’s champion racehorse attempts a 32nd consecutive victory, and a historical 24th in a Group 1 race.

The Ranvet Stakes is a wide open race with several form lines to study.

The races to study are the Australian Cup, Chipping Norton and New Zealand Stakes.

Runners in the top five from the Australian Cup, or any runner from the Chipping Norton as long as they have performed at group 1 level over 2000m or further, and the top two finishers from the New Zealand Stakes ar the horses to focus on.

This gives us Avilius, Libran, Danzdanzdance, Shillelagh, Unforgotten and Egg Tart.

If we study the form of those runners then Shillelagh is the top rater, however her heavy track form is shocking.

Thus we have sought the next rater, and there is a tie, between Avilius and Danzdanzdance.

For the record Danzdanzdance @ $8.00, with the longshot bet Libran 1 win and 3 place @ $51.00.

And the final group 1 for the day is The Galaxy.

As usual the race is wide open, but when you look through the history, we find it easy to analyse. 

The race to study is the Challenge Stakes, run at Randwick two weeks ago.

If you isolate the top five finishers you are left with Redzel, Ball Of Muscle, Kaepernick and Viridine.

Looking at the form of those runners, we see that Redzel ticks all the boxes and therefore is the main bet @ $5.00.

The danger is Viridine whose fresh run was good, but he has had trouble in the past stringing two runs together.

Check out our Slipper Day review next week.

As always, we wish everyone the best of luck and many winners! 

By Voyager, a Village member since 2007.

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