Big bets – how to profit from following the money

November 14, 2020 | By More

Betting large amounts of money on horse racing is not for the faint-hearted. Anything can go wrong and often does. However, professional punters make consistent profits by using low-risk strategies with significant amounts of cash. Their aim is to bet with large stakes, on horses with a very high likelihood of winning. The odds are usually short but the returns are good because of the size of the stake. Big bets cause dramatic shifts in market odds. As a small punter, one can do well by following where the money is going.

Smart punters love to follow the big money. Much like the crowds love to attend the Festival Mondial des Théâtres de Marionnettes in France. According to Betway this is a popular festival that takes place every two years in Charleville-Mézières. Fluctuations in betting odds are driven by large bets from professional punters. The betting moves are clearly seen by monitoring the changes in odds over time. Smaller punters believe these bets are made for valid reasons known only to the pro. Following where the big money is going, and betting around it, is a strategy that can lead to healthy profits. 

How to profit from big bets

For the average punter, simply betting on big bets will not lead to significant profits. The reason being the odds are usually way to short. There is no value in risking your stake for a small profit margin. However, there are other ways to benefit from big bets that can produce large payouts.

  1. Trifecta. Include the plunge horse as standout in the trifecta, or use other trifecta strategies to limit bet cost.
  2. Quadrella. Make the plunge horse an anchor leg in the quadrella.
  3. Other exotics. Try other types of bets like quinellas, exactas and First Fours to benefit from the big bet.
  4. Other runners. Alternatively, risk the plunge horse and take advantage of the greater value about other runners. No doubt they would have eased in the betting.

Risk associated with Big Bets

Professional punters rely on the consistency of racing, and when things are running smoothly, they wager heavily with confidence. However it must be remembered that horses are animals not machines. They can put in a bad one from time to time. While punters continue to invest large amounts on horses that are likely to win, there is no guarantee. There is always a risk that horses, even at short odds, will be beaten.

Indeed, trifecta punters rely on hot favourites being beaten, in order to provide value in their bets. Villagebet trifecta suggestions utilize strategies whereby the favourite is discarded. We hope that for some reason, the fancied runners fall out of the placings. If this happens, a large payout is in play. The trick is to manage the risk so that it is minimised. 

When big bets fail

Punters investing on big bets prefer no risk and small margins. However, even the shortest-priced favourites carry an element of risk. Anything can happen on a racetrack. Sometimes the jockey can be over-confident and find themselves coming up short. The most notable example of a “sure thing” being beaten is Ajax who was defeated in the 1939 Rawson Stakes. He started at 40/1 on in a three-horse race but was beaten half a length by Spear Chief.

Many big bets were invested on Winx and Black Caviar during their winning streaks. Almost all of these victories were no risk and the horses won accordingly. However, how were the professional punters feeling when jockey Luke Nolen went to sleep on Black Caviar at odds of 1-6 in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot? When the champion mare reached the front, the jockey stopped riding thinking it was all over. French raider Moonlight Cloud had other plans and flew home to be only just beaten by the champion Australian mare in a photo finish. Things like this can happen regardless of how good the horse is thought to be.

Call of the Card

One of the great traditions of Melbourne Cup week is the annual “Call of the Card” which is held at Crown Casino on the Monday before the Cup. This event, which has been running for more than 50 years, is typically attended by up to 1200 people. Some of Australia’s biggest punters turn up to the event each year and invest huge quantities of cash bets with four of the leading bookmakers. These big bets usually determine which horse sets off as favourite in The Cup. 

Watch the betting for market movers

As a punter, it’s important to know where the big money is flowing. They cause significant fluctuations (flucs) in betting prices and can usually be detected by watching market movers. Sometimes, odds can dive significantly just before the jump, a tell-tale sign that a truck load of cash has just been bet on the horse. It pays to watch such movements, even better to predict them before they occur. How good is it to know you’re on a horse at twice the odds compared to when it jumps. This is part of the excitement of being a horse racing punter.

Villagebet recommendations

Villagebet has been making Big Bet recommendations with success since August 8th this year. As stated on the Racing Tips and Best Bets page, the Big Bets are for professional punters only. The reason for this is that because the margins are usually quite low, a large investment is required to make significant profit. The minimum recommended wager is in multiples of $1,000. Of all the tips and strategies we promote for each raceday, the Big Bet is considered the strongest play to make a profit. 

As we are not hoping to make a huge windfall on each bet, the recommendation is usually a short-priced favourite who we believe is a very likely winner, a near certainty. Since the punter is investing significant amounts of money, it’s important that the risk of the horse losing is very low.

The first recommended Big Bet was Skyman who won at odds of $3.70. For a $1,000 investment, the return of $3,700 was a healthy profit for our professional punters. Ancestry has been a multiple winner for the Big Bets, having been the recommended bet when winning at Moonee Valley on 24th Oct and again 5th November at Flemington. More recently, Subedar $4.40 was recommended on a day when punting was a nightmare.

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Category: Betting Strategies

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