Caulfield Cup – a race rich in grit and history
The attention of racegoers across the nation turns to Caulfield this weekend for the running of the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, one of Australia’s big quartet of feature horse racing events.
The Caulfield Cup is rich in history and previous winners include most of the champions of Australian racing. It is the premier mile and a half handicap in this part of the world.
The Golden Slipper, Caulfield Cup, WS Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup are the four biggest races on the Australian turf. Steeped in tradition and history, no other events come close to this select group in shaping the state of thoroughbred horse racing in this country.
The race has around 140 years of history, spanning two world wars and two turns of the century. As respected racing journalist Matt Stewart stated recently,
“Few races have a folklore like the Caulfield Cup. Certainly not these gazillion-dollar pop-up races with endless publicity but no grit and history.”
The Caulfield Cup brings together both local and international form lines, in what should be an epic contest.
2019 Caulfield Cup 2400m
Welcome to Caulfield Cup day, and a very intriguing 2019 Caulfield Cup.
As usual, we take a historical look at the feature race, using previous years data to identify the most likely patterns.
The race this year is a pretty straight-forward one, although the recent addition of the internationals has thrown up some new precedents.
The main lead up races are the Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Stakes. It’s pertinent to finish top four in the Caulfield Stakes, but interestingly the finishing position is not important in the Turnbull.
From an odds perspective, if the horse finishes top 3 in the Turnbull it needs to be $6 or less (or at least the favourite even if longer than $6). However, horses that ran unplaced, should be $15.00+.
Only four horses in the last decade who started their campaign in Sydney have placed in the Caulfield Cup. A good enough reason to eliminate as a winning hope, any horses who have traveled this path.
Horses who have not placed in any of their lead up runs are also eliminated. However, if the horse is returning from WFA to the handicap conditions, this rule is ignored.
Of the international horses, you want one that performed at 2400m or longer in its most recent race.
In the last decade, only Jameka (2016) and Mongolian Khan (2015) have won at odds of less than $8.00. The price of winners and placegetters has ranged from $8.00 to $51.00, with the majority between $8.00 and $21.00.
Barriers are interesting. It is not the end of the world if drawn wide. However horses starting inside barrier 8 have an advantage.
Note also that horses drawn wide, at odds of $15.00 or more, have placed on several occasions.
Suggested bets
At the end of these criteria, we are left with Hartnell $20, Mirage Dancer $17, Rostropovich $23, The Chosen One $15 and Gold Mount $26.
Odds courtesy of our preferred online bookmaker.
With the shortest priced runner of these The Chosen One, currently $15.00, we will be backing all five runners. The main bets are No.2 Mirage Dancer $17.00 as a straight-out bet, and No.5 Rostropovich $23.00 and No.7 Gold Mount $26.00, both each-way.
Mirage Dancer is a quality UK stayer by world champion Frankel. He has form around last year’s winner, Best Solution, and also Benbatl who Australian racegoers know very well.
Best Solution $12 carried top weight of 57.5kg to victory in last year’s Caulfield Cup. Horses up in the weights have a good record in the race.
We also recommend adding Finche $7.50, Constantinople $7.50 and Brimham Rocks $31.00 to the exotics.
Enjoy 2019 Caulfield Cup day
Australia’s most successful, free horse racing tips are posted each Saturday morning around 9am.
Check out the Trifecta play on Caulfield Cup day. Last week, the suggested Trifecta, which is based on proven trifecta strategies, was successful paying $307.60 for a $12 outlay.
Good luck and all the best with your investments!
By Voyager, a Village member since 2007.
Category: Horse Racing
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