Caulfield Guineas Day – Australia’s current and future stars

Caulfield Guineas Day is one of Australia’s greatest race days. Every year, the elite thoroughbreds of Australia compete to establish who is best in class. The day features a smorgasbord of prestigious Group Ones, highlighted by the stallion-making, premier mile race for 3YOs in the country.

The Thousand Guineas for fillies

The first Group One of the day is the Thousand Guineas, a $1M mile race for our elite 3YO fillies.

From a historical perspective, the main lead-up races are the 1000 Guineas Prelude, the Flight Stakes and the Edward Manifold. Interestingly, this year there are no runners backing up from Randwick or Flemington, so the Guineas Prelude runners are the ones on which to focus. 

The winner of the Prelude does not have a great record but those who finished second to seventh, and who are starting at odds between $7.00 and $21.00 qualify under our criteria. This leaves us with Missile Mantra, Southbank and Barbie’s Fox. We settle on Southbank $17.00 and Barbie’s Fox $21.00, both as each way bets.

Caulfield Guineas historical form analysis

The lead-up races for the feature race for 3YOs is the Guineas Prelude, the Bill Stutt Stakes and the Golden Rose/Stan Fox. Note the Golden Rose is now run on the day the Stan Fox was run. 

Kubrick, the only colt making the trip down from Sydney, qualifies under these criteria. Vegas Knights, Dalasan, Super Seth and Groundswell are also qualifiers.

The main bet is Super Seth $11.00 with Groundswell $13.00 each way, the saver. Note that our village Mayor is also keen on the Seth, making him his “Weekend Special”.

Add the other two, Kubrick and Yourdeel, for the multiples, the latter who lost his rider last start.

Beware if you like Alligator Blood. The winner of the prelude has not won since Helmet in 2011 and that is significant because all prelude winners have run in the main Guineas.

Caulfield Stakes Tips and Analysis

The Caulfield Stakes is straight forward. The main guide is the Underwood Stakes, however look past the winner. The second, third and fourth placegetters do well in the Caulfield Stakes and being third-up in their prep is ideal. Qualifiers are Homesman and Gailo Chop. A great bet is Gailo Chop $13.00 at each way. Add Avilius, Danceteria and Dream Castle to your exotics.

G1 Toorak Handicap Analysis

The final Group 1 is the Toorak Handicap and it’s no surprise that the Sir Rupert Clarke is the best lead-in and with the winner not running, the top six finishers have the best record. So Si Bon, Cliff’s Edge, Widgee Turf, Streets Of Avalon and Age Of Chivalry are all qualifiers under this criteria.

There is also a precedent for internationals first up, and for horses returning back from WFA. That shows Night’s Watch, Wyndspelle and Chief Ironside as chances. The best bet here is Age of Chivalry $6.00. Night’s Watch $7.00 and Wyndspelle $26.00 are recommended savers. Add the others for the exotics and also Madison County who had no luck fresh in the Rupert Clarke.

Spring Champion Stakes

Sydney’s program suffers somewhat from all the big guns running in Melbourne. The G1 Spring Champion Stakes is pretty straight forward, because historically, the main lead-up race is the Gloaming.

Shadow Hero $1.90 was so dominant in that event that he picks himself as the deserving odds-on favourite. He is the main bet but you must try exotics to find some value. Quick Thinker $7.00 won the Ming Dynasty and placed in the Gloaming and he is a valid danger.

Have a great Caulfield Guineas Day!

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Good luck all the best with your investments today!       

By Voyager, a Village member since 2007.

Tags: best bets, betting, betting advice, race previews, racing tips

Category: Horse Racing