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Historical form analysis for the SA Derby and Doomben 10000

May 10, 2019 | By More

The Adelaide racing carnival continues this weekend with the Group 1 South Australian Derby at Morphettville. This is a strong classic race with many chances. In Brisbane, the racing steps up quickly with the running of the Doomben 10000, always a thrilling and wide-open affair. Our unique historical form analysis is here to uncover more winners for Villagebet punters. We’ve been in white hot form over the past few weeks.

2019 South Australian Derby

The SA Derby is pretty straight forward in terms of historical lead up races. The VRC St Leger, Chairmans Stakes and Australasian Oaks are the three races to concentrate on.

From the Australasian Oaks you need a filly who finished top four, but who is not the favourite. The top three in the Chairmans are also in the frame as are placegetters in the VRC St Leger.

After this analysis, we have Qafila, Declarationofheart, Star Missile and Classic Weiwei as those who qualify for the bets.     

Declarationofheart won the Chairman’s Stakes 2000m comfortably and has drawn a good barrier.

Chapada is coming back from a ninth placing in the Australian Derby in which he started favourite. Trainer said he didn’t handle the track and the Derby is a reference for this race.

Secret Blaze’s win in the Galilee Series Final gives him a better than average chance here. It’s also a great form-line for this race.

Qafila was luckless in the Group 1 Australasian Oaks last week over 2000m, finishing a close fourth. She’s been backed by smart punters here.

The main bet is Declarationofheart $6.50, trained by Anthony Freedman. Qafila is a suggested place bet at $3.00 for the place. I will be adding Chapada, Secret Blaze and Savvy Oak for the exotics. Savvy Oak has the reference through the VRC Derby in the spring.

Zesto ran a terrific race in the VRC St Leger and we suggest to add him to trifectas and first fours.

Doomben 10000

An interesting line-up faces the starter in the Group 1 feature at Doomben. Osborne Bulls and Nature Strip dominate the betting, but both gallopers have serious question marks over their racing style. For me both are not a betting option here.

From a historical form perspective for the Doomben 10000, we have unfortunately only had this carnival fixture for about three years, so it’s difficult to isolate the winners using the previous lead up patterns.

The three races to concentrate on are the All Aged Stakes, Victory Stakes and the Hall Mark Stakes. Three races highlight the following contenders; Osborne Bulls, Manuel, Easy Eddie and Champagne Cuddles. 

From these contenders, the historical analysis sees Osborne Bulls on top from Champagne Cuddles, Manuel and Easy Eddie.

Osborne Bulls’ racing style unfortunately lends itself to being asked too much to win, and for us the $3.30 is too short. He certainly has the talent, running second in the Lightning, Newmarket, TJ Smith and All Aged. 

The value horses in the race are Manuel $31.00 and Champagne Cuddles $12.00. Manuel is a Group 1 winner (CF Orr Stakes) so clearly has the class. Better over 1400m but a strong chance in a tough race. Champagne Cuddles put in a tremendous effort in the All Aged Stakes and is racing well.

Thus, the suggested bets are Manuel $31.00 for 1 win + 3 place, and Champagne Cuddles $3.00 for the place. 

Longshots in the Doomben 10000

It’s always great to find longshots to potentially boost your kitty. We have found two gallopers who do not qualify through the main races, but are good value nonetheless. White Moss $20.00 easily defeated last week’s Robert Sangster winner Spright at her last start. The Bostonian $51.00 has good form around the best galloper in New Zealand, Melody Belle. The Bostonian loves the Queensland sun winning three races last year. Could be the blow out horse. Both White Moss and The Bostonian are in good form and can be added to the four qualifiers to cover trifectas and first fours.

Plenty of tipster fun in the village

There’s always plenty of fun activities in your village.

The coffee quaddie is a lot of fun! Register for it in our Tipping Forum.

We always have great betting promotions on Villagebet. Make sure you take advantage of these because they are terrific value!

The Mayor’s racing tips and best bets will be ready on Saturday morning. Five winners last weekend including the Weekend Special paying $6.00 the win! Make sure you check them out before making your bets. Racing tips, best bets, lucky longshotsquaddies and the highly successful ‘Weekend Special’, are many ways to help you fill your pockets.

Most importantly, we want to wish everyone much success with your investments!

By Voyager, a Village member since 2007.

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Category: Horse Racing