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Historical pointers for Australian Guineas day

February 28, 2019 | By More
Extra Brut comes into the Australian Guineas with the right historical form lines.

Caulfield put on a great show last week with three Group 1’s to delight Australian race fans. Now we turn our attention to Flemington for the next three Saturdays. The carnival kicks off with the $1M G1 Australian Guineas 1600m.

The race has seen some great horses win. It has developed into a stallion-making race, with horses such as Military Plume, Flying Spur, Pins, Reset and Zabeel taking honours.

The master of them all, Zabeel, won the 1990 edition, defeating one of my personal favourites, Stylish Century. Zabeel went on to sire a record 46 individual Group 1 winners including champions Octagonal and Might and Power.

The 2019 Australian Guineas

This edition of the Australian Guineas sees a great line up on paper. The trifecta from the VRC Derby, the Sandown Guineas winner and the winner of the C.S Hayes Stakes, all take their place. C.S.Hayes winner, The Inevitable, is attempting to give Tasmania their first victory in the race.

Three high quality fillies are also among the 16 entries with 1000 Guineas winner Amphitrite, and the pride of Tasmania , Mystic Journey the pick of them.

The historical precedent that has developed over the last decade is that VRC Derby winners run well in the Australian Guineas. The main lead up race is the C.S Hayes Stakes where those who have finished top four are the ones to look for.

These form lines give us The Inevitable, O’Tauto, Ranier, and Extra Brut, as our top-rated runners. Amphitrite and Mystic Journey are also chances because of prior victories of fillies, Shamrocker and Mosheen, for example.

For the record, the recommended bet is Extra Brut for the place @ $3.50 and No.4 Ranier, is the overs @ $31.00.

The Winx show rolls on

We also find ourselves at headquarters in Sydney, where we see two Group 1 races being decided.

There is no analysis needed for the first Group 1 of the day, the time-honoured Chipping Norton Stakes. 

With her majesty, Winx, engaged she should bring up her 31st win in a row, and a World Record 23rd Group 1 victory. 

Winx currently shares the World Record with Irish champion hurdler Hurricane Fly (2004), who won 22 Group 1’s over a decade long career.

As much as Winx is a sure bet for the win, Happy Clapper, is the second best horse in the country. He is nice and fit, and having a rendezvous with the All Star Mile, he will be cherry ripe here. The recommended bet is Happy Clapper @ $1.50 for the place.

Terrific renewal of the Surround Stakes

The second Group 1 on the Sydney card, is the Surround Stakes, for the three year old fillies. We have a very, very smart group of fillies lining up.

It is no surprise that the form reference which stands out is the Light Fingers Stakes. Over the last ten editions of the Surround Stakes, over 60% of the placegetters have come through this lead up event.

In that time, only one of those fillies finished worse than seventh. It also helps if you did not win the Light Fingers, with the winner being a chance, but only for the top four.

This form line sees our top raters, in order, Madame Rouge, Pohutukawa, El Dorado Dreaming and Melt. Nakeeta Jane is a definite place chance, but she can not win. Fundamentalist comes through with the right Melbourne form.

The recommended bet here is Madame Rouge each way @ $14.00, Fundamentalist, is overs, also @ $14.00. A lucky longshot, with a top four chance, is Greysful Glamour, currently quoted @ $61.00

Intriguing NZ Derby

While not an Australian Group 1, the NZ Derby, has always held intrigue with me. We find ourselves at Ellerslie on Saturday for the kiwi classic for three-year-olds. 

For the record, the bet here is No.3 In A Twinkling @ $8.00 with No.8 Sponge Bob the overs @ $19.00.

We wish all of you who are investing, to have many winners and lots of success!

Don’t forget to check out the racing tips page on Villagebet which is updated every Saturday morning.

Written and contributed by ‘Voyager’ (Village Forum member)    

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