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History repeats for the astute horse racing punter

February 22, 2019 | By More

How often do horses win a race that they had won the previous year? If the horse is training well and free of any health issues, it makes sense that history repeats and they can win again. Leaving aside the age-restricted races, it’s something to keep in mind as a value punter.

There is little reason, all things being equal, to expect the horse will not perform at the same level. Conditions are identical, the training and preparation usually similar.

The tendency for these repetitive patterns in horse racing can lead to great opportunities for those betting on longshots.

The vindication of race form year by year is one of the many reasons why punters will never stop betting on horse racing.

The Everest a prime example

Punters who disregarded history were left out in the cold in the 2018 edition of The Everest, the richest turf race in the world.

The Everest horse race is a multimillion dollar marquee event put on by the Australian Turf Club at Randwick in October.

Entrants must purchase a “slot” in the race for around $600,000 and stand to win $5.8 million first prize.

Previous year’s winner, Redzel, once again raced to victory.

Punters lamented being bitten twice by the talented Victorian gelding.

Redzel won the inaugural running of The Everest in 2017 by racing up on the speed and out-sprinting his rivals.

History repeats the following year, when he bounced straight to the front and again showed too much pace on the opposition in the straight.

The horse had an uninterrupted preparation, followed the same path and was in an identical purple patch of form.

Why couldn’t he win again?

For a horse who has already demonstrated the class to win the race, it stands to reason it will be competitive again in the same race.

Race conditions and timing critical

Horses often like to return to the scene of their most famous win, especially at the same course and time of year.

They have a distinct liking for the track, distance and conditions of the race.

History repeats often in horse racing. Sydney’s war horse Tie The Knot won the Group One Chipping Norton Stakes for four consecutive years.

Aside from his undoubted ability, the race conditions and timing of the event clearly suited the tough gelding.

It was a feat that many thought would never be repeated until Winx equalled the record in the Autumn of 2019.

There are many examples of horses achieving consecutive victories in important races.

For example, Kingston Town in the WS Cox Plate, Maybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup and Rising Fast in the Caulfield Cup.

This is some of the hidden value that punters should look for.

Even if the horses are relatively friendless in the market, they are certainly worth considering for each-way betting.

Remember to always throw them in your quadrella combinations.

History repeats time and again

History has a way of repeating itself. It’s one of the things I bear in mind in selecting racing tips each week.

When New Zealand rock band Split Enz penned the words, “History never repeats,” they obviously weren’t referring to horse racing.

History repeats. I tell myself before I go to sleep.

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Category: Punting Advice

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